Ken Ring's Almanac failed to predict the extreme weather event which struck Hobsonville, Auckland on Dec 6th, 2012. The furore over John Campbell’s interview with earthquake predictor Ken Ring this week really exposed a strong anti-science vein running through New Zealand that even we here at Sciblogs, seasoned from hand to hand combat with the anti-vax lobby, homeopaths and evolution deniers were surprised at. “Frankly, what Mr Ring is doing is no better than people crying fire without cause in a packed stadium or picture theatre.” The problem came when their predictions provoked fear, Hyde said. … “Certainty as to a particular event or outcome just cannot be achieved. Even the world's top seismologists didn't entirely understand the physics of earthquakes - something that was necessary to predict quakes. The Alpine Fault runs almost the entire length of the South Island. Thousands of people fled the city in fear. But it’s perhaps worth noting that for Galileo, way back in the early 17th Century, the establishment which repressed his ideas and sentenced him to house arrest was the Roman Inquisition – at the behest of the Catholic Church –not his fellow scientists. Well, only if his other predictions are also on the money – otherwise he just got lucky. Ristau said in his opinion there was "no credibility" in linking moon or lunar phases to earthquakes. Gray cited the full moon and Prime Minister John Key's abrupt resignation as justification, and suggested the shake could hit the east coast of the North Island. However, experts say Gray's November 14 prediction wasn't really a prediction. CREDIT: SUPPLIED. 7:02 The 25 will be lost to this. TOP DEBATE: Have your say… He’s a regular contributor to the comments section at WeatherWatch.co.nz and Ken Ring of www.predictweather.com often causes controversy when he talks of his predictions.. WeatherWatch.co.nz wanted to find out more about the man behind the moon….so presented him with 10 questions for him to answer for our readers. While Gray's painting business appears to be his main source of income, he also offers services as a "life improvement consultant". NZ Skeptics chairman Mark Honeychurch said Gray appeared to have been interested in conspiracy theories for several years now. Since his claim he predicted the September and February Canterbury quakes ahead of time, and his warning of a quake “for the history books” on March 20, it’s been a question on the nation’s lips. "Moon man" Ken Ring has been claiming he can predict earthquakes for years but he recently took a step out of the limelight and isn't doing any media interviews. Ken Ring is a writer from Auckland, New Zealand, who asserts that he can use lunar cycles to predict weather and earthquakes. Includes snow diaries, significant events, fishing calendar, gardening guide, earthquake diary, all instantly downloadable. Gray did not respond to requests for comment. Mr Winter points out that the earthquake Mr Ring predicted was at least five times stronger (7+ in magnitude, as opposed to 6.3), and that taking into account Mr Ring’s own prediction covered 10 days (February 15-25), giving his other predictions the same leeway ends with more days Christchurch residents need to be earthquake-ready than not. In the prolonged drought of 1862, Jupiter and Saturn lined up on one side of the sun in that year. At that point, Gray was a little-heard-of painter and decorator from Takapau in Hawke's Bay. Mr Winter points out that the earthquake Mr Ring predicted was at least five times stronger (7+ in magnitude, as opposed to 6.3), and that taking into account Mr Ring’s own prediction covered 10 days (February 15-25), giving his other predictions the same leeway ends with more days Christchurch residents need to be earthquake-ready than not. According to his Facebook page, Ring has been unwell recently and is taking some time off. Unlike traditional meteorological services, Ring claims to be able to predict the weather years in advance (rather than the standard three-day window where a weather forecast is considered likely to be accurate). If you're wondering, the book's called Pawmistry and can be purchased on Amazon for 1 cent. On Mr Ring’s site, apart from the headline, his February prediction only mentions a quake is “sure to be somewhere in the ‘Ring of Fire’, where 80 percent of all major earthquakes seem to occur”, and if it is in New Zealand, could be “within 500km of the Alpine Fault”. But not all – there was no mention of the September 4 quake until September 8, when he said there would be another “coming in six months”. 3 News weather presenter Mike Hall reported that evening it was a “springtime Sunday well worthy of summer”, and Auckland was going to have “another fine and warm one” the following day. May will see the last of winter frosts and some fine weather but cool" - Ken Ring reveals his weather predictions for 2019. "There are repercussions for shouting 'fire' in a crowded cinema.". A scroll through his Spiritual Awareness social media page is almost like a session of staring up at the clouds. It said: "On 14th November and a couple of days either side of that date, watch for a major earthquake, and quite possible in South pacific area.". 3 News. Ring has been a well-known fixture in New Zealand for some time now, and also flew to fame off the back of disaster. Ring has backed out of the limelight in recent times and did not respond to requests for an interview. Dr Mark Quigley, senior lecturer in active tectonics and geomorphology at Canterbury University, says Mr Ring’s March 20 warning is “opportunistic and meaningless self-promotion during a time of national crisis”. Moon Man Ken Ring, who has predicted a large earthquake in Christchurch next Sunday, is refusing to comment on a "non-event" gathering planned in the city. During a TV interview about his predictions, broadcaster John Campbell yelled at Ring. KEN RING'S EARTHQUAKE WARNING FOR 20 MARCH 2011 IN NZ. On October 21, Frankie MacDonald of Nova Scotia, Canada, uploaded a video to YouTube called 'Massive Earthquake to Hit New Zealand Anytime Soon'. Ken Ring’s weather forecast for Ireland for 2020 - Advertisement - This year may see higher rainfall totals than normal, according to Kiwi long-range weather forecaster, Ken Ring. On Tuesday, Mr Ring predicted “potential for serious earthquake activity today in Japan”, four days after the massive 9.0 Sendai quake that triggered destructive tsunamis along the coast of Japan. "If you make enough predictions, eventually you're going to get lucky," he said. Starting at the top, Sir Peter Gluckman, chief science adviser to the Prime Minister has rubbished Mr Ring’s claims. NZ Herald Home. Many of his supporters would argue Mr Ring, who prefers to call his predictions “opinions”, is only warning of elevated risks – but do they stack up against the evidence? Ireland is on the eastern edge of this antic… Well, after March 20, according to Mr Ring, it won’t be over. KEN RING’S EARTHQUAKE WARNING FOR 20 MARCH 2011 IN NZ If what Ken Ring says is true, the forecast catch includes Taupo and Auckland, which will affect the Waikato River, expecting 14 Dams within this catchment to collapse, which will flood out lowlands of Hamilton – Ngaruawahia – Huntly between 17-22 March 2011, and a month following this. Luckily, the scientific community has also not been quiet on the matter. "Unfortunately Gray believes in so many different ideas that are not only far fetched but at times also contradict each other, it's hard to work out how the dots connect.". Thursday, 03 December 2020. Long-range weather forecaster Ken Ring has shared his distinctive predictions for the coming summer months across the country. There had been examples of very small quakes being caused by fracking in the United States but the government had no means of creating a significant quake. Exactly the same format of what the books used to comprise. Ring, who predicted the deadly Christchurch earthquake and Ireland’s arctic winter in 2010, also forecast the country’s record-breaking July heat wave with uncanny accuracy back in January. His Wikipedia page says he was also a musician, actor, clown, speech therapist, private tutor to children with learning difficulties, teacher of English as a second language, part-time teacher's college lecturer, and co-author of a book about reading cats' paws (he said this one was a joke). He found a slight effect of the moon’s distance from Earth in the region of 2 percent – enough to very slightly affect the potential strength of a quake, but not cause one. Ristau said it took a lot of training and experience to understand earthquakes. Over late December, and throughout January, Queensland suffered some of the worst flooding in its history, resulting in 35 deaths (Toowoomba, pictured right, was hit hard). nzherald.co.nz Wednesday, 18 November 2020 Ken Ring – genius ahead of his time or a complete fraud? "There's actually no way humans could set off earthquakes like that," Ristau said. He’s become a household name in New Zealand. With his dubious track record though, one could hope he singles out popular doomsday date December 21, 2012 for his next ‘prediction’. Gary's posted pictures of himself online, and on his consultancy website, with a bookcase full of scientology materials, worth thousands of dollars. His so-called prediction was picked up by international media, including the Daily Mail, the Sun and the Mirror in the UK. New Zealand will drop down into alert level 2 at midnight, freeing up restrictions on what you can do and where you can go from tomorrow. "The level of evidence he seems to require in order to accept an idea is very low.". The strongest quake to hit that day measured 6 – a decent shake under normal circumstances, but weak compared to aftershocks recorded on Monday and Wednesday. In mid December, Ken Ring tweeted that Queensland, Australia, would have a “mostly dry” January. He went on to say he had "strong evidence" to suggest the Kaikoura earthquake was "deliberately caused" and there was a plan to create another devastating earthquake using "electromagnetic frequencies" off the East Coast and Cook Strait. To put things into perspective: The Kaikoura quake released 2600 times as much energy as every nuclear weapon ever detonated. ACC Minister Nick Smith has a PhD in geotechnical engineering and a background in landslides and earthquake engineering. According to NZPA, a group of geologists, alongside earthquake engineers, skeptics, Dr Smith and host of TV3’s The Nation,Sean Plunket, will be having lunch on the Port Hills(pictured right) to quell “unfounded fears”. Consider this: Ken Ring’s probability of getting a prediction correct based on perigee/apogee new moon/full moon for 2010 was 63 percent. Auckland-born weatherman Ken Ring has made his latest predictions for the coming Northern winter, forecasting a white December for Ireland. READ MORE: * Earthquake: there's no evidence the moon causes quakes * Why quakes weren't caused by seismic blasting or 'unzipping' faultline. According to Geonet, the strongest shake Christchurch had that day measured 3.8 – less than one they had just yesterday – 4.0 – which Mr Ring didn’t predict. Before he was a self-appointed weather forecaster and earthquake predictor, Ring was a maths teacher and later became an educational magician, known as Mathman. On December 1, Gray submitted an Official Information Act request to the Ministry of Defence: "I would like to know if you have attempted to investigate warfare or terrorism being conducted on New Zealand by means of geo-engineering (creating earthquakes) or weather modification?". “Within 500kms” reaches as far up the North Island as Hamilton. It seems proven ken ring earthquake predictions 2019 april 1 2017 gmc nonetheless its new deluxe crossovers and the most popular sierra 1500 pickup drive the restrictions of its utilitarian image 2019 gmc sierra 2500 hd rumor and release date 2019 GMC Sierra Denali Off-Road Review: Is It Luxurious. Takapau man Nigel Antony Gray is the new kid on the block when it comes to claims of successful earthquake predictions. Britain's Craig Hamilton-Parker says Aotearoa can expect a "serious earthquake" in 2018, which he believes will be part of "a general increase in seismic activity worldwide" next year. Moon man Ken Ring has been forced into hiding after receiving death threats. “There’s no added risk of a quake on March 20 or any other day, and I think people do not realise the disharmony and the discomfort that is being given to a lot of people in the Christchurch regions by [predictions],” he said yesterday. It’s not often such extravagant claims are made in the mainstream, let alone get the following Mr Ring has corralled in recent weeks. He told That’s Farming that due to heavy rain, winds and a high tide, mid-January may be subject to floods in the northwest and south. On December 12, petrol stations, especially those in Gisborne, were brimming with customers who were worried the big one would hit. The earthquake hit early morning on Tuesday 8 December 2020 at 1.52 am local time at a moderately shallow depth of 45.1 km. Meanwhile when ken ring nz earthquakes prediction 2019 It looks and sounds … The techniques Gray used in his life improvement seminars are based on Scientology. Campbell said he believed Ring was causing unnecessary fear, when the people of Christchurch had been through enough. How far in advance? I had a visual of a bird with overgrown feet/legs and a large beak. Instead he posted on Facebook as to why he would not be interviewed by mainstream media. Predictions of potentials and trends is possible from analysing factors that produced weather in past years. Premium Auckland Wellington Christchurch. "Occasionally people will get lucky with a single prediction, but if someone can reliably and accurately predict future events then there's a chance they're onto something," he said. end quote. The question asked by US scientists back then was why hadn’t they learned their lesson about pseudoscientific earthquake predictions. Earthquake: there's no evidence the moon causes quakes, Why quakes weren't caused by seismic blasting or 'unzipping' faultline, Lunchtime sightseeing trip in new helicopter ends with fatal crash, Transport Agency employee breaching learner licence kills motorcyclist, This could be the worst Parliament since MMP unless urgent changes are made, Pilot injured after helicopter crash in Hawke's Bay, Auckland mum appalled after school staff member put tape on her son's mouth, Quiz: Morning trivia challenge: December 16, 2020, Covid-19: Rest home volunteer dressed as Santa infects 75 residents in super-spreader event, Distressed investors handed over more than $13m to missing Australian woman Melissa Caddick, In a first, leading Republicans call Joe Biden US president-elect, Coastal residents’ fight for their homes comes to an end. He did not tweet or write anything on his website about the possibility of a quake in Japan beforehand, despite his claim they can be predicted far in advance. Ring publishes almanacs each year for New Zealand, Australia and Ireland in which he provides weather predictions for the entire year. David Winter, an evolutionary genetics PhD student at the University of Otago who has taken on Ken Ring before, thinks not. On November 18 he suggested the Auckland Santa Parade should move from the planned date of November 28 to December 5, as it’s going to be “wet wet wet”. What therefore may happen, can only be described in terms of risks and probability.” Predictions on 11-8-15 New Zealand Earthquake Spirit what prediction is coming next? He claims the New Zealand Government is not only controlling our weather (using chemtrails and chembombs) but also creating earthquakes using a microwave transmission installation called HAARP (High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program). The colours on this map indicate the likely severity of shaking in different areas – in technical terms, the ground motion which has a 10% chance of occurring within 50 years. Dr John Beaven, crustal dynamics geophysicist at GNS Science says: “A simple analysis… of aftershock occurrence and the phase and distance of the moon shows that there is no obvious correlation between these parameters and the occurrence of large aftershocks.” Ken Ring - Long Range Forecaster. “We are too impressed by occasional ‘hits’ and tend to forget the many ‘misses’ which outweigh them.” Level 2 - What can you do? Long-range Kiwi weather guru - Ken Ring - is predicting that snow will arrive in Ireland after Christmas and into January - the last part of which is dry and freezing. Dr Smith told the National Business Review that Mr Ring’s predictions are “mumbo-jumbo nonsense”. At the time, Gray told media his intention wasn't to scaremonger. Weak frontal systems will bring cloud and patchy light rain at times. That’s 230 out of 365 days that fall on some day that he would argue influences earthquake activity… Should we evacuate an area every time the moon is on its closest approach, is full or new, is moving rapidly, is at its maximum declination or is crossing the equator?” According to GNS Science’s online earthquake record, that hour was one of five that day there were no quakes at all. Ken "Moon man" Ring is well known in New Zealand, with his wide-brimmed hat and moon-related earthquake predictions. Psychic Predictions for 2020, World Psychic Predictions By Leading Australian Psychic Medium Vine. The 55-year-old claimed the supermoon made a large earthquake a possibility. "You've got to be open-minded but you've got to be careful it's not so open your brain falls out," she said. On February 27, Mr Ring said a “jolt” was “possible” in Christchurch between 3pm and 4pm. Ring lives in the West Auckland suburb of Titirangi and makes his money forecasting the weather. Kevin Reed’s thoughts on the power of one second! "As a Painting Trade Contractor I have spent several years checking the weather reports, almost daily, on a need-to-know basis," Gray wrote in an online post. The Beautiful Teachings of Sufism and the Sufi Saints. It was not unusual to see people like Ring or Gray come out of the woodwork when an event like the Christchurch or Kaikoura earthquake happened. “Consider this: Ken Ring’s probability of getting a prediction correct based on perigee/apogee new moon/full moon for 2010 was 63 percent. He’s further pinpointed April 18 and the year 2020 as future earthquake dates. People who claim to be able to predict earthquakes are not unique to New Zealand. Gray caused another stir by predicting a shake would hit on or about December 13. In fact, it was Galileo that developed much of what we now call the ‘scientific method’. Ken Ring's Almanac failed to predict either the July or August 2011 extreme polar blasts that hit NZ. The world's top seismologists are yet to figure out how to predict earthquakes but a couple of Kiwi amateurs reckon they've cracked the code. Long-range weather expert Ken Ring predicted Fijis devastating tropical cyclones in his New Zealand Weather Almanac 2016, which was published in July 2015. Gray first stumbled into the world of earthquake predictions via his interest in geo-engineering and weather modification. A large Atlantic anticyclone will bring dry, cool weather in a north-westerly airstream, the forecaster predicts. Science writer and former NZ Skeptics chair Vicki Hyde said Ring's background was quite common for someone who claimed to be able to predict future events based on trends or patterns they believe others have missed. In order to predict an earthquake, the person needed to give the date, the location (more specific than South Pacific), and a magnitude, he said. Dear Roger I have not stopped from posting my predictions. ... in the UK, tornados, extreme weather events around the world and stronger activity in the Pacific Ocean around the Ring of Fire. Gray during one of his seminars. So is there any validity at all to his moon-based methods, or is it just lunacy? Headlines that preceded the predicted December 1990 earthquake As one commenter on … The exact magnitude, epicenter, and depth of the quake might be revised within the next few hours or minutes as seismologists review data and refine their calculations, or as other agencies issue their report. In the year after the M7.8 Kaikōura earthquake there were over 20,000 aftershocks. The Missouri man now has 185,000 subscribers to his YouTube channel, as well as multiple Facebook pages and a website dedicated to his predictions. Ken Ring offers services for farmers, councils or corporates, weather for a family reunion or a single forecast week to week. 25/08/2020 2021 NZ Weather Almanac Comprises 346 pages of rain maps, frost and snow, max+min temps, summaries, tables. ​Honeychurch said the strength of any ability to predict future events was repeatability. Does the fact Canterbury shook again five and a half months later prove his methods are correct? Now Takapau man Nigel Gray is giving Ring some competition. Ring believes that around mid-June, temperatures will fall mostly below normal with several nights of ground frosts during the third week. The Secretary of Defence, Helene Quilter, responded with a brief letter saying the ministry did not hold any information about supposed geo-engineering, weather modification or man-made earthquakes and had no reason to believe the information requested was held by any other government organisation. 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